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On April 28 2024, the ballot on three by-elections for the House of Representatives (Lower House) took place amidst a big turmoil in the political funding scandal of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s factions as they were not able to even field candidates for two out of the three constituencies. It meant disgracefully forfeited matches for the party. The LDP was not even able to secure the only by-election district where they fielded their own endorsed candidate in Shimane Prefecture. It turned to be a big blow to Prime Minister Kishida. Given this situation, the possibility of a rumoured June snap election before his current term as the LDP president officially expires this September, has become very little. As a matter of fact, PM Kishida on the morning of April 30, during an extraordinary press briefing, commented on a snap election, “(I am) Not thinking (about it) at all.” No one can foresee the destiny of his administration and his grand strategy for his political victory. The opposition parties remain divided and there is no viable opposition. This gives the LDP a great advantage to win over them against the backdrop of general public’s resentment feelings toward the party’s financial mishandling.

With the LDP’s long seasoned political skills and opposition in disarray, the chances are still high for the LDP to manage to win the next general election. Nevertheless, PM Kishida’s close aide, LDP Acting Secretary-General Seiji Kihara, had expressed a grave concern for a possible change of government, this fear spread within the party as they could not win their stronghold constituency in Shimane, which they had secured consecutively since 1996, first time ever.  

Despite the abovementioned election results and looming uncertainties, the LDP has had a long history of electoral victory in Japan. However, what appears to be a strong democratic party yielding its historic victories to popular public support is actually a scheme rooted in calculative decisions and tactical campaigning. This paper explains and analyses how Japan’s electoral system functions, and how the LDP has been so successful at snatching electoral victory in the Lower House, and why the LDP’s biggest fear are their current supporters.